WHY I"M PICKING PAVLIK
By Jim Amato

April 2, 2007 - On May 19th in Memphis, on the under card of the Jermain Taylor - Cory Spinks middleweight title fight there will be a battle to see who is next in line for a title shot. Undefeated Kelly Pavlik of Youngstown, Ohio will take on once beaten Edison Miranda of Columbia. The survivor should be the next opponent for the winner of Taylor - Spinks. If you're looking for fireworks, Pavlik - Miranda should provide them.

Kelly Pavlik will be 25 years old the night of the fight. He will bring in a record of 30-0 with 27 knockouts. He stands a little over 6' 2". He has a 75" reach. Edison Miranda is 26 years old. He sports an impressive 28-1 ledger with 24 KO's. He will be at a disadvantage in height standing 5' 11" but he listed with a reach of over 76". His only loss was in an attempt to win the IBF middleweight title last year losing a decision to dead game defending champion Arthur Abraham. Although he fought the majority of the fight with a broken jaw Abraham won by scores of 114-109, 115-109 and 116-109.

In the Abraham fight Miranda proved that he is a rough customer. Since the loss Edison has won two bouts to put himself right back in the thick of the middleweight picture. A lot of people are predicting a toe to toe slug fest between Pavlik and Miranda. I see it unfolding a little bit differently. I believe a lot of people are overlooking Kelly's solid amateur background. He was a highly regarded national amateur when he was eighteen and would mix with top notch competition like Jermain Taylor and Anthony Hanshaw. He is not just a punch winging KO artist. In reality he is a very well schooled fighter. Although it was Miranda who has fought for a world title and has defeated a boxer who challenged for the title, I feel Pavlik has met better overall opposition.

Miranda's first key victory was a twelve round decision over Jose Varela. A seventh round KO over aging contender Howard Eastman led to the Abraham fight. Since that loss Edison has scored a sensational one round demolition of Willie Gibbs and a well deserved decision over Allan Green.

Pavlik has a knockout over " Contender " winner Grady Brewer. He outscored stubborn Ross Thompson. He then scored knockouts over Dorian Beaupierre, Fulgencio Zuniga, former world title holder Bronco McKart, Lenord Pierre and rugged Jose Luis Zertuche.

How will the fight go ? I see Kelly coming out with the intention of keeping Miranda on the outside. Edison is a dangerous hitter but he is a sub par boxer. Kelly is no Larry Holmes but he does have a decent jab with some pop on it. This might discourage Miranda's wild rushes. Pavlik also has a snappy uppercut that may force Edison think twice before charging forward. Miranda will learn early that he will have to take some punishment to get inside and believe me, Pavlik can punish.

This by no means will be a walk in the park for Kelly. Miranda will connect on occasion and test Kelly's chin. If fact I can see both men hitting the canvas during the course of the battle. As the fight reaches round eight, nine and ten I see a desperate Miranda who is behind on points winging his shots hoping to land a hay maker. At this point Edison may be leaving himself open to a powerful Pavlik counter. I'm going to pick Pavlik by a comfortable decision or possibly a late round kayo.