My Pick is....
By Tom Donelson

INSIDE BOXING (September 17, 2004) - Everyone has their opinion on the weather and everyone has their opinion on the Hopkins-De La Hoya fight as well. Before I give you mine, a few thoughts.

De La Hoya strengths will be his hand speed and mobility. Look at the first nine rounds of the Trinidad fight and you can easily see the strategy that could defeat Hopkins. Then look at the three last rounds of the same fight and you see the main weakness of De La Hoya. In the big fights, he fails to close the show and always leaves his big moments hanging in the hands of the judges.

Hopkins weakness will be his age and hand speed. He is the slower fighter. His advantage is that he can pressure De La Hoya all fight and he will not tire down the stretch.

Now for the big key to who will win? If Hopkins repeat Hager mistake against Leonard seventeen years ago, then De La Hoya will escape with the big upset. If he pressure De La Hoya from the get go, De La Hoya is in trouble.

Hopkins, like De La Hoya, can fight almost any style and go from plan A to Plan B. I will say that Hopkins is better at adjusting during a fight better than De La Hoya. Look at the Trinidad fight and you will see a fighter who boxed when he needed and finished the job when he had Trinidad on the rope. As the fight progressed, Hopkins became more aggressive to take advantage of the more tired Hopkins. Hopkins had a brilliant game plan against the younger fighter and he adjusted it as the situation warranted.

My heart believes that De La Hoya will upset Hopkins. I will not bet with my heart but my head. My head tells me unless Hopkins acts 39, he will pressure De La Hoya from the first round. He will not give De La Hoya a moment rest and he will not allow De La Hoya to set the pace. De La Hoya will not have any easy round even though those rounds that he wins in the early part of the fight.

De La Hoya will have the advantage in the early rounds but this will dissipate as the fight progresses. If De La Hoya allows this go to the scorecard, it is no guarantee that he will win. In his big fights, De La Hoya has lost as many close fights as he won. He will not get any advantage from the judges, especially if he is boxing. Las Vegas gives the aggressor the advantage when judging.

My pick is Hopkins by a late round TKO or decision. He will dominate the later rounds and close the show. This is Hopkins fight to lose.