Will History Repeat?
By Tom Donelson

INSIDE BOXING (September 8, 2004) - The September mega event between Oscar De La Hoya and Bernard Hopkins is upon us and many have compared this to the famous Leonard-Hagler fight.

The first similarity was that both Leonard and De La Hoya were two of the better fighters of their generation whereas both Hagler and Hopkins were the best Middleweights of their era. Both Hagler and Hopkins were overwhelming favorites.

Here are some differences that need to be explored. When Hagler faced Leonard, both fighters had one great fighter that was on both fighters resumes- Tommy Hearns. Leonard defeated Hearns by knocking him out in the 14th round in one of the greatest welterweight fights whereas Hagler pounded Hearns in eight of the greatest minutes in boxing history. The one fighter that both Hopkins and De La Hoya shared on their resume was Trinidad. Hopkins pounded Trinidad and stopped him in the 12th round. De La Hoya out boxed Trinidad before essentially giving Trinidad the last three rounds and losing a controversial decision.

It is those two fights that show the difference in these two fights. Leonard was a finisher and at his peak, he was the best against the best. Leonard match up well against Hagler for they were both similar in size and while Hagler was the stronger fighter; Leonard was the quicker of the two. Leonard could box and he could knock out an opponent. His speed and smarts proved invaluable in defeating Hagler. Hagler was one of the best Middleweights in boxing history but when it came to style, Leonard tactics proved to be superior. Hagler was not outfought as much as he was outsmarted as Leonard knew when to flurry and understood timing. It was as if he knew when the end of the round was and flurry to capture the close round.

De La Hoya will be two inches shorter than Hopkins and he will be at a power disadvantage when fighting Hopkins. De La Hoya will have to depend upon his speed and endurance. In the past, De La Hoya has not shown great endurance in the closing rounds and this has cost him. On the other hand, Leonard closed the show at the big moments. In his fight against Hearns, it was Leonard who closed the show whereas De La Hoya could not seal the deal against Trinidad.

Whereas Leonard had the perfect style to fight Hagler, De La Hoya may not have the best style to defeat Hopkins. Hopkins size will allow him to bully De La Hoya and While De La Hoya speed will give him one advantage, his endurance down the stretch will be his undoing.

Both De La Hoya and Leonard were 31 going in their fight with the reigning Middleweight champion and Leonard had only one fight in the previous five years. When Leonard marched into the ring, he was a definite underdog but Leonard studied Hagler and knew his weakness. Leonard won this fight before he walked into ring. Hagler came in the fight over confident and basically gave away the first four rounds. If Hagler had pressed the action in the opening rounds, history may have taken a different course.

Which brings us to the September 16th match up. If Hopkins repeat the same mistake that Hagler did and allow De La Hoya to get off and box; then De La Hoya will have a chance. If Hopkins presses the action, then he will win the fight easily. The key historical fact to keep in mind about the first fight was that Hagler allowed Leonard to fight his fight and Leonard’s size and style was tailor made for Hagler.

De La Hoya will not match Hopkins in size and Leonard had more pop in his punches when compared to De La Hoya- at least at the 147 through 160 pounds range. So when De La Hoya marches in the ring, History will not repeat itself. Hopkins will not allow De La Hoya to set the pace and rhythm of the fight as Hagler did with Leonard. And that is why History will not repeat itself.